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  Driven by macro news factors, rare earth market prices rose significantly [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

  [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Market Prices Rise Significantly Driven by Macro News Factors] Currently, rare earth market prices are showing a significant upward trend. This is mainly driven by the procurement activities of major manufacturers in the market and news factors. As major manufacturers engage in concentrated procurement, the availability of low-priced rare earths in the market tightens. Meanwhile, influenced by news factors, market confidence has been boosted, and suppliers are intentionally refusing to budge on prices, driving a significant price increase.

• The seesaw trend is obvious, with magnesium prices fluctuating upward and holding up well this week [SMM Magnesium Weekly Review]

  [SMM Weekly Magnesium Review: Stalemate Evident, Magnesium Prices Fluctuate Upward This Week] Recently, influenced by news related to the resumption of work in major production areas, the market has been more bearish on future magnesium prices. This week, magnesium ingot prices fluctuated rangebound, with a clear stalemate between supply and demand. As of the time of publication, the mainstream transaction prices of 99.90% magnesium ingot in major production areas today were 16,200-16,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from last Friday.

• Beware of fading macro sentiment, steel prices fall back from highs [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

  This week, the ferrous metals series held up well. This week was a week for domestic and overseas macro data. At the beginning of the week, China released supply and demand data, with the supply side showing strength. The growth rate of industrial production was 5.8%. On the demand side, driven by the "trade-in" policy and the 618 shopping festival, demand growth rebounded. However, the growth rates of real estate and investment pulled back. As the week drew to a close, the US Federal Funds target rate remained at 4.25-4.5%, in line with expectations. Overall, domestic and overseas macro data were largely in line with expectations, and market sentiment was more characterized by following the upward trend in commodity prices brought about by the "Israel-Iran conflict." In the spot market, futures rose this week, market sentiment improved, and terminal procurement was somewhat released. However, overall, procurement sentiment remained cautious...

• SMM: Copper prices may surge again in Q4 amid macro recovery & ore supply tightness, while the tight balance of supply and demand will support aluminum prices to fluctuate upward throughout the year

  [Electric Drive System Conference | SMM: Copper Prices May Rise Again in Q4 Amid Macro Recovery & Worsening Ore Supply, Tight Balance in Supply and Demand to Support Fluctuating Uptrend in Aluminum Prices Throughout the Year] Ye Jianhua, General Manager of SMM Industry Research, delivered a speech on "Price and Cost Analysis of Electric Drive Metal Materials." He pointed out that in the early stage of 2025Q4, the effects of relatively loose fiscal policies in China and the US would become apparent, with expectations for global economic recovery gradually strengthening. However, the deterioration of ore supply would leave smelters facing a raw material shortage, leading to a further decline in global copper cathode production and a potential upward shift in the center of copper prices. Throughout 2025, the domestic supply side in China would gradually approach its capacity ceiling, with new capacity coming online mainly in Q4. Annual production growth would narrow to around 1.9%. Meanwhile, the development of new energy and other sectors in China would continue to drive primary aluminum consumption. Export orders from overseas markets would remain moderate, and the decline in aluminum consumption in the traditional construction sector in China would be limited. SMM expects aluminum consumption in China to increase by approximately 2.4% YoY throughout 2025. Additionally, despite the trend of the overseas market outperforming the domestic market in aluminum prices, net imports this year would exceed expectations and increase, partly offsetting the "capacity ceiling" constraints. However, overall supply would still be tight. Coupled with a significant reduction in casting ingot volumes, the center of aluminum prices would shift upward throughout the year.

• MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (June 20)

  Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to hold up well, with the most-traded contract I2509 touching 708 before weakening slightly and closing at 709, up 0.93% for the day. Traders showed a good willingness to sell. Steel mills largely completed their weekly procurement, with only some purchasing as needed today.