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  Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Heat Up, Aluminum Prices Expected to Hover at Highs in Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes]

  [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Heat Up, Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs in Short Term] Pre-holiday (September 30) night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,765 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 20,770 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,680 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, down 0.43% from the previous close. Trading volume was 68,700 lots, and open interest was 191,000 lots. Yesterday (October 8), LME aluminum opened at $2,743/mt, reached a high of $2,762/mt, a low of $2,737.5/mt, and closed at $2,750.5/mt. Macro side, internationally, according to CME forecasts, the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 94.6%; for December, the probability of maintaining rates is 0.6%, with probabilities for cumulative cuts at 25 basis points (16.0%) and 50 basis points (83.4%). (Bullish★) Domestically, on October 9, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,100 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations via fixed amount, interest rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 3 months. (Bullish★)

• ADC12 Aluminum Alloy Prices Continue to Fluctuate in the Short Term; Post-Holiday Focus on Raw Material and Inventory Changes [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

  [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Prices Expected to Continue Fluctuating Rangebound in the Short Term; Post-Holiday Focus on Raw Material and Inventory Changes] In the short term, aluminum scrap costs continue to support ADC12 prices, but extended downstream holidays and inventory buildup will limit upside room. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating rangebound trend. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply conditions, inventory changes, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.

• SMM Metal Production Data for September 2025 Released

  SMM's monthly base metal production data is scheduled for release at each month-end, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals from the ground up, helping industry chain professionals and investors see through the illusions of the capital market and grasp the future trends of the nonferrous metal market more clearly.

• The alumina market maintains a surplus pattern, and spot prices continue their downward trend [SMM Alumina Morning Comment].

• Alaska Mine Development Accelerates, LME Copper Edged Down Slightly Last Night [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

  SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $10,783.5/mt overnight, initially climbed to $10,815/mt, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of $10,661/mt near the close, before fluctuating upward to finally close at $10,701/mt, down 0.23%, with trading volume reaching 18,000 lots and open interest at 321,000 lots. SHFE copper was closed overnight.