[SMM Analysis:In 2025, China’s total copper concentrate imports exceeded 30 million tons, yet geopolitical risks intensified supply chain shifts.] It is worth noting that in recent years, major global copper-producing countries have increasingly strengthened control and strategic competition over key mineral resources, leading to significant volatility and uncertainty in the international copper supply chain. As the world’s largest copper consumer, China’s copper concentrate import sources are influenced by multiple geopolitical and trade policy factors.
[SMM Analysis] Poor Downstream Demand Leads to Continuous Inventory Buildup of HRC in Ningbo
According to the SMM survey, the large-caliber inventory of SMM Ningbo HRC stood at 332,500 mt this week (as of January 21), up 6,000 mt WoW.Futures prices declined first and then rose this week, while spot prices fell by 10 yuan/mt from last Friday, with trading performance ranging from moderate to weak during the week. As of the afternoon close on January 23, the most-traded HRC 2605 futures contract closed at 3,305 yuan/mt.
This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. Last Sunday afternoon, a converter explosion occurred unexpectedly at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, prompting the blast furnace at the facility to be shut down for maintenance. The incident also heightened market expectations for stricter safety measures in steel production, leading to a slower-than-expected recovery in overall hot metal output. At the beginning of the week, iron ore led the decline in ferrous metals, with finished products following suit. In the latter part of the week, the decline in hot metal output was milder than anticipated, and coupled with Trump’s shift in stance—abandoning tariff threats—market sentiment improved, resulting in a mild rebound in futures from lower levels. In the spot market, weaker futures dampened speculative sentiment, with restocking primarily driven by rigid demand at low prices. Some spot cargoes were sold at discounted prices, and construction material demand faced additional pressure due to weather conditions.