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In March 2025, China's aluminum processing industry composite PMI rose to 61.6%, entering expansion territory, driven by policy dividends and seasonal peak effects that propelled structural recovery. Aluminum plate/strip (63.3%) and foil (69.3%) benefited from automotive/battery demand and old-for-new policies, though constrained by Indian anti-dumping measures and declining overseas orders. Architectural aluminum profile new orders exceeded 70%, while industrial profiles maintained expansion through new energy/solar demand, yet SMEs faced over 50% idle capacity due to technical bottlenecks. Aluminum cable production index surged to 73.05% as industry leader, driven by front-loaded ultra-high voltage orders and grid delivery schedules. Recycled aluminum PMI jumped 27.7 percentage points to 70.4%, but high aluminum prices suppressed procurement, revealing weak recovery in primary aluminum and inventory risks in recycled sectors. Although April's solar policy updates and grid peak season may sustain growth momentum, aluminum prices exceeding ¥21,000/ton could dampen purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with export pressures and SME overcapacity, the industry's overall upside potential remains constrained.
[SMM Analysis] On March 24, 2025, the Ministry of Finance released the “Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in 2024”, which explicitly proposed that in 2025, fiscal policy will implement a more forceful “green shift.” Under the framework of the “dual carbon” goals, the development of renewable energy and the promotion of new energy vehicles will be used as strategic fulcrums. This policy orientation not only reflects the intrinsic needs of China's high-quality economic development but also provides a Chinese solution for the global energy transition.
【SMM Analysis】On March 24, 2025, the Ministry of Finance released the "2024 China Fiscal Policy Implementation Report," which explicitly stated that the fiscal policy in 2025 would implement a more robust "green shift." Under the framework of the "dual carbon" goals, the development of renewable energy and the promotion of NEVs would serve as strategic pivots. This policy direction not only reflects the intrinsic demand for high-quality economic development in China but also provides a Chinese solution for global energy transition.
SMM Aluminum Downstream Analysis: Structural Recovery in Aluminum Processing Industry PMI in March—Peak Season Drive Fails to Mask High Aluminum Prices and Export Pressure Concerns. In March 2025, the composite PMI of China's aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6%, entering the expansion territory, driven by policy dividends and peak season effects, leading to a structural recovery. Aluminum plate/sheet and strip (63.3%) and aluminum foil (69.3%) benefited from automotive/battery demand and the trade-in policy but were constrained by India's anti-dumping measures and declining overseas orders. New orders for construction aluminum extrusion exceeded 70%, while industrial aluminum extrusion maintained expansion due to new energy/PV demand, but small and medium-sized enterprises faced over 50% idle capacity due to technological bottlenecks. The production index for aluminum wire and cable surged to 73.05%, leading the industry, driven by ultra-high voltage order placement in advance and power grid delivery dates, resulting in full-scale production. The PMI for secondary aluminum surged by 27.7 percentage points to 70.4%, but high aluminum prices suppressed purchases, leading to weak recovery in the primary sector and inventory risks in the secondary sector. Although the new PV policy in April and the peak season for power grids are expected to sustain some growth momentum, aluminum prices exceeding 21,000 yuan/mt may suppress purchase willingness, coupled with export pressure and surplus capacity among small and medium-sized enterprises, limiting the overall upside room for the industry.
[SMM Analysis] On March 28, 2025, the General Office of the People's Government of Hunan Province officially issued the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption in Hunan Province" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), which proposes ten specific actions aimed directly at expanding consumer capacity, improving consumption quality, and stabilizing economic growth.
