[SMM Analysis] Shipment Pace Picks Up Slightly, Ningbo Inventory Fluctuates Rangebound
According to the SMM survey, this week, the SMM broad-based inventory of HRC in Ningbo stood at 355,500 mt (as of August 27), up 10,300 mt WoW. This week, HRC prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices adjusting slightly by 10-30 yuan/mt on a weekly basis. The market trading atmosphere remained moderately weak during the week, and end-user purchase willingness was average. By the afternoon close on August 28, the most-traded HRC 2510 futures contract closed at 3,385 yuan/mt.
[Weekly SMM Review] This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. Overseas traders were optimistic about the upward trend, with overseas market prices continuously increasing and a small volume of transactions in the domestic market at $13.3/lb. On the supply side, major miners maintained their stance on refusing to budge on prices, while traders continued to raise quotes and control the pace of shipments. On the demand side, the increase in cobalt salt prices was slower than that of intermediate products. Smelters maintained a just-in-time procurement rhythm, with few transactions above $13.1/lb. Some companies, due to severe losses from production costs, sold off raw material inventory in the market. Overall, influenced by the DRC's policy extension, China's cobalt intermediate products will continue to face raw material shortages in the future, providing upward momentum for prices. However, during this process, attention should be paid to how the rise in raw material prices may suppress downstream demand.
Recently, according to foreign media reports, India has approved 19 green hydrogen production projects with a total capacity of 862,000 mt/year. The Minister of State for Power, New and Renewable Energy announced that 15 companies have been selected to build 3 GW of electrolyzer capacity.
[SMM Weekly Review] Spot Cobalt Sulphate Prices Continued to Rise This Week
[SMM Weekly Review] This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate continued to rise. On the supply side, with raw material prices continuously increasing, smelters and traders refused to budge on prices. Cobalt intermediate product smelter quotations remained at 54,000~55,000 yuan/mt, while MHP and recycling companies raised their quotations to 52,500~53,500, and traders increased their quotations to 51,000~52,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, downstream purchasing inquiries remained strong this week, with some precursor and Co3O4 companies closing deals at 52,000 yuan/mt, and a small volume of high-grade cobalt sulphate traded at 53,000 yuan/mt. It is expected that under the influence of continuously rising raw material costs, the price of cobalt sulphate will likely maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term. However, the extent of the increase still depends on the actual purchase situation downstream. If there is a large-scale procurement by downstream buyers, the rise in cobalt sulphate prices will be smoother.