Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were at a discount of 600-400 yuan/mt today, with an average discount of 500 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Transaction prices ranged from 97,880-99,140 yuan/mt, with an average of 98,510 yuan/mt, up 1,180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
According to the latest data released by the World Steel Association (WorldSteel), global crude steel production reached 140.1 million tonnes in November 2025, representing a 4.6% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. Cumulative production from January to November totaled 1.6622 billion tonnes, down 2% YoY. Excluding China, cumulative production in the rest of the world grew by 0.67% during the first 11 months, indicating a modest recovery in overseas markets. However, growth momentum varies significantly across regions. The core trend reinforces a pattern of "Emerging Market Growth vs. Traditional Hub Contraction" with particularly stark performance gaps within the EU, Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Currently, high copper prices are significantly suppressing end-use demand, with enterprise orders performing far worse than in the same period in previous years. Some enterprises are expected to cut production during the New Year's Day holiday. SMM forecasts that the industry's equipment operating rate will further decline to... next week.
[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: New National Subsidy Funds Arrive, Inventory Buildup Reality Compresses Upside Space for Aluminum Prices] Overall, the reality of suppressed fundamental consumption and continued inventory increase will significantly restrain the price's upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to move within a range with obvious resistance above.