[SMM Analysis]Zinc Concentrate Market Sentiment Warms Up, TCs Seem to "Replicate" Last Year's Trend!
SMM Analysis:On December 25, SMM recorded the guidance price for domestic zinc concentrate TCs in January 2026 at 1,200–1,600 yuan/mt in metal content, with an average price of 1,400 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt MoM. Throughout the year, domestic zinc concentrate TCs rose first and then fell. In Q4, domestic zinc concentrate TCs largely repeated last year's pattern, with domestic zinc concentrate TCs seemingly set to return to historically low levels. However, recently, sentiment in the domestic zinc concentrate market has shown signs of warming up. Why is this......
Since Q4, China’s petroleum coke market supply side has shown a two-way divergence characterized by accelerated domestic capacity release and shrinking import supply. The supply-demand pattern is undergoing periodic adjustments. Domestically, refinery maintenance pace slowed significantly in Q4, with a sharp drop in new maintenance plans, while production resumptions at previously idled refineries accelerated. Some long-term idled enterprises also gradually resumed production, leading to a continued rebound in domestic petroleum coke output and a gradually emerging incremental effect from local supply.Demand side, since December, downstream enterprises showed increasing fear of high prices and buying sentiment slowed, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand. Due to insufficient support from both supply and demand, domestic petroleum coke prices started a continuous downward trend. Port petroleum coke offers declined accordingly, and the pace of port spot cargoes shipments slowed noticeably. Against the backdrop of an overall weak domestic fundamental, petroleum coke imports in December are expected to continue declining.
Based on SMM calculations, full-year exports are expected to reach around 2.28 million mt, continuing the growth trend. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by demand growth driven by continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to maintain growth, with the export increase expected to exceed 7%, and total exports climbing to around 2.45 million mt.