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  [SMM Analysis] The Paradox Behind the Stagnation of EU Internal Copper Scrap Trade and the Surge in Outflows

  [SMM Analysis:The Paradox Behind the Stagnation of EU Internal Copper Scrap Trade and the Surge in Outflows]Market behavior is being further distorted by the anticipation of looming regulations. Starting in July 2025, the EU launched systematic customs monitoring of cross-border metal scrap movements. Stricter regulatory frameworks will take effect in May 2026, culminating in a total export ban to non-OECD countries by May 2027. This clear regulatory roadmap has triggered a "front-running" effect. To bypass future compliance costs, complex auditing processes, and the eventual ban, traders are accelerating liquidations during the current window of opportunity.

• The DRC decided to extend the 2025 cobalt export quota to Q1 2026.

• Year-End Volatility in the Copper Scrap Market: The Supply-Demand Dilemma Amid High-Price Suppression and Policy Uncertainty

  This week, the copper scrap market retreated after a rapid rise as copper prices hit a record high, with overall trading remaining sluggish. At the beginning of the week, copper prices climbed to 98,800 yuan/mt, an increase of 740 yuan/mt, while Guangdong bare bright copper prices followed the upward trend to 87,000 yuan/mt, marking a weekly gain of 1,400 yuan/mt. The price difference between primary metal and scrap once widened to 5,225 yuan/mt, theoretically giving secondary copper a significant economic advantage, but actual demand did not correspondingly release. Overseas markets came to a standstill due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, and trade in imported recycled copper raw materials was largely suspended.

• 【SMM Announcement】SMM Domestic Prices Suspended During New Year Holiday; Overseas Prices Resume on Jan 2

  The 2026 New Year's Day holiday is around the corner. Below is SMM's service schedule for your reference:

• China’s Refined Copper Exports Expected to Remain Above 100kt in January 2026

  From November to December 2025, China’s copper cathode exports remained elevated, with monthly exports exceeding 100,000 tonnes for two consecutive months, reaching 143,000 tonnes in November and a preliminary estimate of 85,000 tonnes in December. As global regional price structures remain misaligned, the counter-cyclical export window has yet to close. Exports in January 2025 are expected to stay strong, likely above the 100,000-tonne threshold.