[Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With a Stronger US Dollar Put Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Cause Volatility] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening capital liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly suppressing upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.
SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,257/mt. After bottoming at $12,208/mt in early trading, its center fluctuated upward and reached a high of $12,383/mt, then hovered at highs and finally closed at $12,283/mt, up 1.58. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 296,000 lots, an increase of 3,418 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls adding positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,950 yuan/mt, bottomed at 95,530 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved higher to a high of 96,580 yuan/mt. Copper prices then saw their center move lower and finally closed at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 1.11. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 2,036 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.
[SMM Tin Morning Comment: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintained a Fluctuating Trend After Opening Slightly Higher in the Night Session, Spot Market Transactions Showed Mediocre Performance]