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![Copper Prices Pull Back, Stimulating Recovery in End-Use Demand [SMM Analysis]](https://static.metal.com/price.metal.com/3.1.13/image/news-default.png)
Copper Prices Pull Back, Stimulating Recovery in End-Use Demand [SMM Analysis]
SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Pull Back, Stimulating Recovery in End-Use Demand. This week, copper prices reacted sharply to Trump's 25% tariff on imported copper cathode, surging to 83,270 yuan/mt before quickly pulling back to 80,380 yuan/mt. The rapid decline in copper prices did not drive significant demand growth, and with copper prices still at a relatively high level, many end-user wire and cable enterprises have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.
Overnight Market: US Dollar Weekly Decline, Metals Mostly Fell, LME and SHFE Tin Rose Over 1%, NY Gold Weekly Gain Exceeded 3% to Hit a New Record High. Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets mostly fell, with only LME tin, LME nickel, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME tin rose 1.77%, SHFE tin rose 1.89%. LME nickel rose 0.94%, SHFE nickel rose 0.62%. The rest of the metals fell, with LME zinc leading the decline at 1.66%, while the rest of the metals fell within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.61%. Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.88%, and on Friday, it once surged to a record high of $3,124.4 per ounce.
In March 2025, China's aluminum processing industry composite PMI rose to 61.6%, entering expansion territory, driven by policy dividends and seasonal peak effects that propelled structural recovery. Aluminum plate/strip (63.3%) and foil (69.3%) benefited from automotive/battery demand and old-for-new policies, though constrained by Indian anti-dumping measures and declining overseas orders. Architectural aluminum profile new orders exceeded 70%, while industrial profiles maintained expansion through new energy/solar demand, yet SMEs faced over 50% idle capacity due to technical bottlenecks. Aluminum cable production index surged to 73.05% as industry leader, driven by front-loaded ultra-high voltage orders and grid delivery schedules. Recycled aluminum PMI jumped 27.7 percentage points to 70.4%, but high aluminum prices suppressed procurement, revealing weak recovery in primary aluminum and inventory risks in recycled sectors. Although April's solar policy updates and grid peak season may sustain growth momentum, aluminum prices exceeding ¥21,000/ton could dampen purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with export pressures and SME overcapacity, the industry's overall upside potential remains constrained.
[SMM Analysis] On March 24, 2025, the Ministry of Finance released the “Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in 2024”, which explicitly proposed that in 2025, fiscal policy will implement a more forceful “green shift.” Under the framework of the “dual carbon” goals, the development of renewable energy and the promotion of new energy vehicles will be used as strategic fulcrums. This policy orientation not only reflects the intrinsic needs of China's high-quality economic development but also provides a Chinese solution for the global energy transition.
【SMM Analysis】On March 24, 2025, the Ministry of Finance released the "2024 China Fiscal Policy Implementation Report," which explicitly stated that the fiscal policy in 2025 would implement a more robust "green shift." Under the framework of the "dual carbon" goals, the development of renewable energy and the promotion of NEVs would serve as strategic pivots. This policy direction not only reflects the intrinsic demand for high-quality economic development in China but also provides a Chinese solution for global energy transition.
